Showing posts with label fantasy baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy baseball. Show all posts

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Draft Prep -- The Best Thing about Rhino Baseball

For those of you who don't know, I'm the creator of a rotisserie baseball program called Rhino Baseball Deluxe. It's the only available desktop software for fantasy baseball that combines everything from managing rosters and crunching stats multiple fantasy leagues, computing customized player projections, computing customized dollar values, preparing for your annual rotisserie auction, tracking live draft results and assisting you to make the best possible bids/picks, computing in-season player and fantasy team projections, creating trend graphs, and evaluating players and teams during the season in a variety of ways.

Although this software was initially released in 1998 (as Rhino Scout) and has been around ever since, not enough fantasy players really know enough about it. Ultra conservative marketing is somewhat to blame, as is the complexity of the program -- it contains so much stuff that casual users and inexperienced fantasy baseball enthusiasts are quite intimidated by it. There are also a host of other reasons why I've never gotten rich off the darn thing, although it has done well enough that it has been continually enhanced and sold for 12 years now.

I really love this baseball software (I'm a little biased!) and have been using it to run my fantasy league for 13 years (since the 1st beta version) and to prepare for my rotisserie auctions for many years now. I've also used the live draft tracking / management tools since they became available in 2005, and have had great success with them. Since 2000, I've finished in-the-money (top 4) every year in our HARL league and have captured 4 HARL championships. I owe much of that success to the fantastic draft prep and stats analysis of Rhino Baseball.

One major feature of Rhino Baseball that non-users don't know anything about are the Draft Planning tools in Rhino Baseball; in particular the Draft Assistant, Draft Plan Analyzer, and Draft Advisor. They're definitely unique to this software program; I haven't seen anything else like them in any other software package. So just what is a draft plan?

Many inexperienced rotisserie GM's make the mistake of grabbing a set of player projections, crunching player dollar values off of those projected stats, printing out player rankings (sorted by dollar value), and then thinking they're done with their draft prep. Unless you're in a league full of newbies, you haven't gone far enough in your draft preparation. Dollar Values and player rankings are great, but they must live and die within the context of two major things: Your Fantasy Team Budget and the Statistical Goals you need to reach in order to win. The simple facts are: (1) you cannot afford to fill out your roster solely with superstars, and (2) just because a given player has a high projected dollar value doesn't mean he's the perfect fit for your team at a given point during the auction.

Here's where Rhino Baseball comes to the rescue. Rhino Baseball includes a really neat function called the Draft Assistant. It lets you search through the available players for your draft, and build a POSSIBLE ROSTER of players for your fantasy team. Each player's DRAFT PRICE is based on his projected dollar value, although you can tweak it as necessary (e.g. perhaps you think you can get a player for his Optimal Bid price, generally 70% to 85% of his projected value).



Building these draft rosters or DRAFT PLANS is an eye opening experience, not to mention a hell of a lot of fun. You quickly realize that you've got many tough choices to make. You cannot afford all the studs. So do you spend the money on 1B Lance Berkman to get his great OBA and top-notch run production, or do you grab 2B Brandon Phillips who offers a nice power/speed blend at a position which lacks depth after the top 3 or 4 guys are drafted? Can you afford to pay for a stud Closer and 3 excellent Starting Pitchers? How many dirt cheap $1 guys (one bid unit) must you draft to compensate for all that money you're spending on studs? These are the kinds of choices that the Draft Assistant alerts you to. It helps you build a great team that's WITHIN YOUR BUDGET.

The really neat thing about Draft Assistant is that you can create MULTIPLE draft plans (budgets). I often build 6 or 7 of them. Once I've spent the time to do that, I open the Draft Plan Analyzer function to evaluate which of my plans is gives me the best chance to win. Here's how that works.

In the Draft Plan Analyzer, you enter your STAT GOALS into a popup window for all the stat categories your fantasy league uses. For instance, if you play in a 5x5 league that uses Batting Average, Runs Scored, RBI, Home Runs, Stolen Bases, Wins, Saves, ERA, Strikeouts, and WHIP, you enter a target value for each of those stat categories. This is the stat level that you want your team to reach. Generally, it's going to be the stats level you'll need to reach in order to finish 3rd in each category (or perhaps 4th in a large league with 13 or more teams). I usually look at the last few years of our HARL fantasy league stats to derive realistic stat goals for my team.

Once you've entered your goals, you click a button and the Draft Plan Analyzer does the heavy lifting. It computes the projected stats for each of your selected draft plans (you can select all 7 at once if you like), compares those projections against your given Stat Goals, and calculates a Plus/Minus Factor for each plan. The plan with the largest plus-factor gives you the best shot to achieve your goals and garner enough points in your league standings to win. That's the draft plan that becomes my PRIMARY draft plan to follow on Draft Day. The 2nd best draft plan serves as my fallback option or SECONDARY plan.

Armed with these draft plans, I use them during my live rotisserie auction using the program's Draft Advisor tool. Rhino Baseball and its associated SQL database can be loaded right onto your laptop and you can take it with you to your annual draft. There are several "Live Draft" related functions, but I won't delve into them now. Most of them are for tracking which players are still available (ranked by best-to-worst value), adjusting player prices due to draft inflation/deflation, checking Drafted Rosters for all the teams, looking at Projected Fantasy Team Stats at any point of the draft, and so forth. But the coolest and most helpful tool in my opinion is the Draft Advisor function.

The Draft Advisor function lets you look at a selected draft plan (usually your Primary plan, unless you've gone to your fallback plan). You can see which players you've drafted (highlighted in green), which are still available (not highlighted), and which players (highlighted in red) your fellow owners have drafted out from under your nose (bastards!!!). For players who have been poached by someone else, you can click on a player then click the Recommended Replacements button to find suitable available players whose stats-production and player-values are similar to that player who was in your original plan. This is a huge help, and let's you quickly adjust your Draft Plan on the fly. It also keeps you on track Budget-wise, so you know when you've got extra money to spend (time to pounce!) and when you need to cool your jets and sit back.

On the right-side of the Draft Advisor screen, you can also see how the team you've drafted so far are stacking up against your Stat Goals. How short are you on Home Runs or Stolen Bases? Can I stop worring about ERA and Saves? It gives you a good idea of where your strengths and weaknesses are, so you can draft accordingly. If you're solid in power but are severely lacking in speed, you'll need to pay, pay, pay for the best available Stolen Base guys.

Drafting based on pure dollar values is a recipe for disaster. The Draft Advisor takes the core data (projections, dollar values, available players, frozen players, statistical goals), and helps you FOCUS your attention on what you need to do to win. Plans do change in mid-draft -- often a lot. But in order to succeed and win, my strong belief is that you need to "work your plan during the draft". It's hard to be successful if you just wing it and go entirely on gut instinct.

Those draft plan and advisor tools are really what makes Rhino Baseball Deluxe and Draft Magic (the draft-only version) great from a draft prep and management perspective. I wish more people knew about it and learned to use it to their advantage. I know there are a few guys in my HARL league who have used other software packages for their draft prep and tracking. They continually fail to beat me. I wonder why?

Peace out!

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

What Time is it? It's Rotisserie Baseball Time!


Ah yes, it's Easter season. The onset of warmer weather is here. The blossoming of spring flowers is right around the corner. The rebirth of all that is good, cheerful, and sunny is upon us.

Screw that and gimme some damn BASEBALL!

Yes sports fans, it's baseball time again. Or more importantly, rotisserie baseball time (or fantasy baseball for you more politically correct youngsters who don't want to piss off the powers that be who own the rights to the term "rotisserie baseball").

We just held our annual HARL player auction on April 5. It was 5 jam-packed hours of bidding craziness, friendly banter and seeing old friends, and mind-sapping mental arithmetic. In a word, it was FUN. Or in two words: GREAT FUN. Or in three words... Well you get the picture.

This was our 22nd annual draft. I started the league in 1987 and am still running it. I don't know how many of you have ever done something for 22 years, but that's a friggin LONG TIME. I guess you could say that I have a love affair with fantasy baseball... err... rotisserie baseball.

I won't bore you with anything really deep about my league (HARL) right now. I'll save the analytical stats babble for another time. It's late after all and I gotta go check some boxscores. If you reallt want to find out more about my league, head on over to the HARL blog (for news) or HARL Central (for reports).

Oh yeah, one more thing... GO RHINOS!

Monday, March 24, 2008

He Lives!

Wow. Has it really been 2.5 weeks since I last posted here? It seems like even longer than that! Hopefully my readers haven't totally abandoned me. I'm not dead folks. I do live!

So where have I been since March 5 and what's been happening?

Rhino Software

Well, for starters, I have been mega mega busy with work at Rhino Software for the past month. Being that our flagship products involve fantasy baseball software and a weekly baseball stats service, the preseason (especially late February, March, and the 1st half of April) is always totally crazy for me work-wise.

On the plus side, orders for software and stats services have been steadily rolling in these past few weeks. I'm very grateful for the business, but of course, I wish there was even more. The fantasy sports business is extremely competitive nowadays, and it's tough for a tiny company like ours to compete in a world that's dominated by the giant media companies such as CBS, ESPN, Yahoo, and MLB.com. But we offer products a little outside of the mainstream, and our customers are a little more experienced and do-it-yourself than the typical fantasy sports fan. The really great thing is the nice batch of repeat customers who have stuck with Rhino with many long years. I've lost track of how many folks are in our Gold Club; it has become quite sizeable. Serving these people, who have become my friends in many ways, is really what makes all the thankless years of hard-work worthwhile. Thanks for keeping me going guys!

Rhino Baseball

Despite the fact that Rhino Baseball has been around for 10 years, I know that it could still benefit from lots of added exposure. Perhaps I'll eventually force myself to make the time to create some updated video demonstrations of the software via YouTube or another online movie/demo tool. Rhino Baseball takes some time to learn because it's a pretty deep program, but man, it is a very cool program once you learn what it can do. I wish more people could really see that by having an expert user like me show them all the neat stuff it can do.

I obviously love fantasy baseball, having played in and run a league for 22 years now. But I can honestly say that I probably would have given up on fantasy baseball many years ago without Rhino Baseball. It just really adds so damn much to my enjoyment of projecting player stats, doing draft prep in the preseason and tinkering with plans/strategies, tracking my picks & progress at my annual player auction, running my HARL league in a smooth fashion, and being able to provide my league-mates with some fantastic analytical reports such as in-season dollar values, impact ratings, team point graphs, top-30 roto leaders, and other neat reports during the regular season.

Blecho Sicko

The flu bug has really bitten my family and friends hard this year. Just about everyone that I know has suffered through some bout of illness this winter. I was healthy up through March 10 and then BLAMMO! On March 11 it struck. I came down with some nasty bug, which knocked me on my tookus for almost 2 weeks. I'm still dealing with the tail-end of it as we speak.

Needless to say, being sick in bed for many days, with occasional forays into the office to take care of some pressing business needs, put the kabosh on my blog-writing for awhile.

I had planned to do some reporting on my experiences at the Cold Wars convention in Lancaster which I attended on March 7 and 8. Those reports will be coming real soon -- they'll be part of one of my next 2 blog posts. It was a great weekend. Perhaps I caught "wargamers disease" from the teeming masses of damp gamers (it was rainy that weekend)?

The Blog is Back!

So although the blog was on hiatus for the past few weeks, the Six Sided Rhinoceros still lives. Over the next few weeks, you can expect:
  • A mix of miniature wargaming stuff as I report on my adventures at Cold Wars 2008, share some pictures taken by my friend Kevin (and some of my own), and discuss the cool toys that I bought there. It was a very good con for painted minis!
  • A few words about the coming fantasy baseball season. I've got 2 weeks to prepare for my upcoming draft (HARL Draft Day is April 5), so my head is swimming with rotisserie thoughts right now.
  • Some fresh boardgaming stuff. I've also been on a tabletop gaming hiatus for the past 5-6 weeks, simply do to lack of time and being sick. Once early-April rolls around and my fantasy baseball draft ends up in the rear-view mirror, I'm hoping to get back into the swing of board gaming and wargaming again.
  • Some thoughts on Sword of Severnia playtesting. Spring sees the kickoff of playtesting of the much anticipated computer-assisted miniature wargame that I've been developing for Rhino Software for the past 2+ years. I'm probably going to go ahead and share some thoughts on that process and the wargame's development progress here. Maybe I'll even share some designer notes as well, although I've got to be careful not to reveal too much before the game is officially released (hopefully later this year).

So stick with the blog and come back often as the posting frequency should increase now that I'm healthy again!

Cheers!

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Rhinos and Soldiers and Planes, Oh My!

My mind is racing with several different things right now. So rather than write one meaty, in-depth post about a specific subject, I'm going to swipe a couple of quick brush strokes across a variety of topics tonight. Call this one my Eclectic Moments post.

Rhinos
Why are rhinos on my mind? Or more specifically, what in the Hell do rhinos carrying baseball bats have to do with me? Well, I'll tell ya. Rotisserie baseball nuts across the world are likely experiencing a mixture of anguish, euphoria, and relief this week. Why? Because the Major League baseball regular season, the one that counts for roto geeks, just ended on Monday (October 1st). As it turned out, my rotisserie baseball team, the Sevy Rhinos, just won the coveted HARL Championship. Yesssss.... Wooohooo.... Who's the Man now Dog? So I'm squarely on the euphoria end of the spectrum.

The HARL league is one that I've been playing in and running for 21 years. Yes, you read that right, TWENTY ONE YEARS. It's a crazy love affair to be sure. And this year's HARL championship marks the 7th time that I've won the league. That's really, really hard to do, especially in a competitive and somewhat advanced league such as ours. So I'm basking in the afterglow of a great season. Thank you to those stud Rhinos who helped drive me to victory this season. Take a bow Jimmy Rollins, Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Pat Burrell, Kaz Matsui, Todd Helton, Jeff Francis, Oliver Perez, Tom Gorzelanny, Kevin Gregg, and the rest of the cast who slugged and hurled their way into the fantasy promised land. We'll be handing out golden horns soon enough. Now if my beloved Philadelphia Phillies can just do the same thing!

Toy Soldiers
I just received the HMGS East newsletter in the mail a few days ago. It's hard to believe, but the final miniature wargaming convention of the year, FALL IN 2007, is just over 5 weeks away. Fall In is being held in Gettysburg PA, at the Eisenhower Convention Center from November 9 through 11.

I've gone to this convention for many years, although I missed it last Fall because I was away on a European cruise (Oh the pain! err... NOT!). I fully intend to go to the con this year. For those of you who have never been to Fall In, I highly recommend making the drive down to Gettysburg for at least 1 day and checking out the fun. Unlike Historicon in Lancaster PA, which is always super-crowded and often stifling hot, Fall In is a more laid-back convention with smaller crowds and the benefit of cooler temperatures. There are still plenty of games to play and watch, and a sizeable Dealer's Hall (which is the main reason I go to HMGS East cons to be honest).

Having just been forced to shell out beaucoup bucks on car repairs last week (needed to get my A/C compressor replaced), I need to find a way to scrounge up some spending cash for the con. Maybe I'll eBay some old board games that I don't play anymore. I've been wanting to unload the Russian Campaign, Gettysburg, Dark Emperor, Blue Line Hockey, Rogue Trooper, and some other titles for awhile now but have never gotten around to it. Maybe this will spur me on. Or maybe I'll sell my plasma. Yaneverknow.

Planes
I'm not talking about Physics 101 -- a ball rolling down a plane. And no D&D'ers, I'm not talking about the Ethereal Plane or the Nine Planes of Hell. I'm talking about airplanes. Up until this point in my life, I've never gotten involved in gaming with miniature airplanes. I've always thought that air combat games looked pretty cool when I've seen them played at conventions. And I even owned a few tiny, diecast planes when I was a kid. Heck I used to play the hell out of that oldtime classic Red Baron arcade game in the 1970's. It was before true video games came into existence. The more planes you shot down, the more Red Baron tokens the machine would spit out. Ah, the fondness of my youth!

Anyway, plane-based wargames were something that just never caught my eye long enough to really pay attention to. But my thoughts on this are changing. That's due in large part to two games centered around airplane combat that have been recently published.

The first game is a World War I air combat game called Wings of War, by Fantasy Flight Games. This is a card-driven wargame of tactical airplane combat where your goal is to shoot down enemy bi-planes such as Fokkers and Sopwith Camels. Kewl doobs! What's even better is that the game has a line of pre-painted miniature airplanes (in 1/144 scale) that are quite attractive.

You can buy these planes for roughly $9 bucks apiece from ThoughtHammer. Each plane comes with its own customized "maneuver deck", so getting game cards & model plane for under $10 bucks seems like a very fair deal to me. I'm very tempted to take the plunge.

The second game is a board game called Duel in the Dark, by Z-Man Games. This is a World War II era wargame that pits British bombers making bombing-runs over cities in Germany. I won't get into all the nitty gritty details of the game here, but the reviews that I've read of the game have been overhelmingly positive and the mechanics of the nighttime bombing raids are very slick and make for a tense game. Plus, it only takes about 45 minutes to play a game, so that's quite attractive for a wargame. Check it out.

That's all for now.... Expect more eclectic ramblings to come!

Friday, August 31, 2007

Why Must You Mock Me Ubaldo Jimenez?

Patience is a virtue. My brother used to say that to me all the time. You may have even heard that tiny tidbit of wisdom yourself a few times. Oh, how I've always believed it and tried to live my life according to the sage who espoused this great knowledge.

But you know sometimes..... Well sometimes you just say screw conventional wisdom. Fantasy Baseball is not only a great game, it's a great teacher. Among the many things the game teaches us is that conventional wisdom is often utter poppycock.

We know that the odds of a rookie making the jump from A-ball to the big leagues and having any success is about as likely as Donald Trump hiring Rosie O'Donnell as the next Apprentice. But then, Albert Pujols shows us that it can happen. We know that once a player gets on the wrong side of age 35, that his career isn't going to last very much longer as his skills begin to quickly erode. And at 40 years old, well you might as well bury those guys because they've got nothing left. Say hello to Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, and Barry Bonds. They're all 40 and doing just fine thank you. So conventional wisdom certainly isn't foolproof.

Enter Mr. Ubaldo Jimenez, rookie pitcher for the Colorado Rockies and ex-Sevy Rhinos hurler. He looks young and happy doesn't he? Well, on July 30th, this fresh-faced kid made his way onto the roster of the Sevy Rhinos fantasy baseball team. His salary, all of 30 cents, was barely going to make a dent in my team's $18 salary cap and he could be a nice addition down the stretch. After all, finding decent starting pitching is like finding hen's teeth, and you can never have enough arms to go around. Plus, Ubaldo was sporting a solid 3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a terrific .191 Batting Average Against in his first 3 starts. Plus, he's been a highly touted prospect for the past year so he has a pedigree. Me likey!

But jeez, he's just a 23 year-old rookie and he pitches half his games in HELL (aka: Coors Field). So why take the chance when conventional wisdom says this is a super risky pick? Screw Conventional Wisdom, I said defiantly before I made my weekly Free Agent bids and snapped up Ubaldo.

On August 8, when I finally had enough of the constant shellackings that are better known as "games in which Adam Eaton starts", I waived Eaton and called up UJ to the Rhinos starting rotation. He would reward my maverick tendencies with quality innings and life would be grand. Except one little thing happened. On August 9th, one day after Ubaldo put on his red & white uniform with the rhinoceros on the cap, he gave up 10 hits and 9 runs (5 earned) in a mere 2 innings of work. One word summed up my feelings when I saw his line in the boxscore: Sonofabitch.

So on August 13, one week after he was called up to my roster, Ubaldo Jimenez was coldly waived by a GM with no time for self-imploding rookie hurlers. I grabbed someone with a track record, albeit a shaky one at best. Hello Joel Pineiro, goodbye UJ.

As fate would have it, my most bitter and feared opponent, the Lucky 7 Reno Gamblers (my brother's team) snatched Ubaldo Jimenez off the waiver wire and called him up to their roster on August 20th. Then Ubaldo proceeded to pitch two excellent games in a row, throwing a combined 14 innings and giving up a scant 2 earned runs and only 10 baserunners. He also picked up a Win as well.

Seeing my fiercest rival scarf up my droppings and turn them into gold dust made me want to hurl. But in all honesty, the fault lies entirely with me. I went against conventional wisdom again and didn't have the patience to weather one bad outing by a kid who 2 weeks earlier looked so promising. I should have known better.

As it turns out, more often than not, conventional wisdom is right.